Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 6, 2026

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.22% on February 6, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.50% and the 30-year note at 4.85% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread being particularly significant [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the 10-2 spread is approximately 48 weeks from the first negative spread date, or 18.5 weeks from the last positive spread date [1] Treasury Yields Overview - The long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965 [1] - The 10-2 spread has been continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, indicating potential recession signals [1] - The 10-3 month spread also shows similar patterns, with negative periods leading up to recessions [1] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs, and recent trends show that mortgage rates have declined despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [1] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.11%, one of the lowest since October 2024 [1] - Fed policy has been a major influence on market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1]