白银波动率已超100%。它的底部究竟在哪里？

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have experienced extreme volatility recently, with a nearly 30% drop following a historical high, raising concerns among investors about when prices will bottom out [1] Group 1: Recent Price Movements - Silver prices have shown significant fluctuations, with 11 instances of price changes exceeding 5% since the beginning of the year, and a one-month volatility rate surpassing 100% [2] - On a recent Thursday, spot silver fell by 10% before recovering to close up over 2% at $73 per ounce, while New York silver futures dropped over 5% to $72.34 per ounce [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - UBS analysts attribute the recent sharp decline in silver prices to market risk aversion rather than fundamental collapse, indicating that without sustained investment demand, silver prices may struggle to maintain the $85 per ounce level [2] - UBS forecasts a supply gap of nearly 300 million ounces in the silver market this year, with investment demand expected to exceed 400 million ounces, although high prices may suppress industrial demand [2] Group 3: Divergent Opinions - MKS Pamp's research head suggests that the current volatility of silver is unlike previous bull markets driven by physical supply constraints, predicting a consolidation phase rather than a rapid rebound, with potential price dips to $60 per ounce [3] - OCBC Bank holds a more optimistic view, stating that silver retains structural advantages despite short-term market sentiment, with a long-term price target of $134 per ounce by March 2027, supported by its applications in various industrial sectors [3]