【中诚信国际行业展望】中国港口行业（2026年2月）

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese port industry is expected to experience steady growth in cargo and container throughput, driven by domestic demand and the resilience of foreign trade despite global economic uncertainties and protectionist trends [2][3][12]. Industry Overview - Since 2025, multiple waves of export surges, increased demand from emerging markets, and the export of high-value products have led to significant growth in container throughput. Domestic transportation and stable growth in bulk commodity imports have also contributed to an overall increase in national port cargo throughput, surpassing the growth rate of the previous year [2][4][5]. - The competitive landscape among major ports has remained largely unchanged, with hub ports strengthening their scale advantages and some southern ports showing robust growth [4][5]. Economic and Trade Environment - In the short term, global economic and trade growth is weak, with rising unilateralism, protectionism, and geopolitical conflicts creating uncertainties in the foreign trade environment. However, improvements in China's industrial chain competitiveness and diversified trade layouts provide strong resilience for foreign trade [3][12]. - Domestic fiscal and monetary policies are expected to boost internal trade and import transportation demand, providing solid support for port throughput [3][12]. Investment Trends - Waterway construction investment in China has slightly decreased year-on-year but remains at a high level. The peak of equity investment has passed, but there is still demand for internal integration and overseas investment [22][24]. - Fixed asset investment in water transport for January to November 2025 decreased by 2.2% to 193.54 billion yuan, focusing on strengthening coastal hubs and improving inland waterways [22]. Financial Performance - Port enterprises have maintained good profitability, with a slight increase in financial leverage but strong debt repayment capabilities. Future cargo throughput growth is expected to support profitability, while the pace of terminal construction is slowing [27][33]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the average operating income of sample port enterprises grew by only 2.44% year-on-year, influenced by adjustments in trade business revenue recognition and a contraction in non-port business scale [27][29]. Port-Specific Performance - Container throughput in major coastal ports has shown good growth, with Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan ports achieving significant increases. For instance, Shanghai's container throughput reached 8.1 million TEUs in the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 3.4% [11][8]. - Emerging ports have also experienced rapid growth, with the Beibu Gulf Port benefiting from policy incentives, achieving a container throughput increase of 9.0% [8][11]. Conclusion - The Chinese port industry is projected to maintain steady growth in cargo and container throughput, supported by domestic demand and resilient foreign trade, despite global economic challenges and uncertainties [34].