Core Viewpoint - The report from Northeast Securities highlights the untapped user payment potential of NetEase Cloud Music, indicating a significant room for improvement in its online music payment rate compared to international competitors like Spotify [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In 2023, NetEase Cloud Music achieved its first profitable year, with a gross margin recovery from -114.74% in 2018 to an expected 33.73% in 2024, marking a shift from a growth model based on scale investment to one driven by content value [1] - The company is projected to generate revenues of 7.935 billion, 8.692 billion, and 9.585 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.684 billion, 2.215 billion, and 2.541 billion yuan respectively, and an EPS of 12.32, 10.17, and 11.66 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 16 times in 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Landscape - The global recorded music market is expected to reach $29.6 billion in 2024, growing at 4.8% year-on-year, with streaming accounting for 69% of the market, indicating strong growth potential [2] - In 2022, China entered the top five global music markets, with a projected growth rate of 9.6% in 2024, surpassing mature markets in the US and Europe, driven by enhanced copyright protection and local music innovation [2] - The competitive landscape in the online music sector is clear, with Spotify leading globally at 32% user share, while Tencent's platforms dominate domestically, and NetEase Cloud Music holds a 19% monthly active user share, leveraging community engagement and original content to appeal to Gen Z users [2] Group 3: Growth Drivers - NetEase Cloud Music's growth is driven by a three-pronged approach: content, community, and technology [3] - The content strategy includes a diverse copyright portfolio covering various genres and the incubation of 774,000 independent musicians and 4.4 million original songs through initiatives like the "Stone Plan" and "Cloud Ladder Plan" [3] - The community aspect shows high engagement, with 1.2 billion music reviews and a daily average listening time of 78.9 minutes per active user, leading to a DAU/MAU ratio exceeding 30%, indicating strong user retention [3] - Technologically, the company leads in personalized recommendations and has developed the "NetEase Tianyin" AIGC platform to lower content creation barriers, enhancing user experience across multiple devices [3]
东北证券:音乐生态巨头网易云音乐(09899)受益于行业快速扩容