长江有色： 美联储变局引爆商品抛售！ 6日镍价或下跌

Core Viewpoint - The nickel futures market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, leading to a decline in prices across global markets [1][2]. Market Performance - The latest closing price for London nickel (LME) is $17,060, down $270 per ton, a decrease of 1.56%, with a trading volume of 8,626 contracts [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai nickel main contract (2603) closed at 134,250 yuan per ton, down 1,130 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.83% [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The nickel market is characterized by "oversupply and demand vacuum" ahead of the Spring Festival, with downstream industries like stainless steel and new energy battery manufacturers halting production and procurement [2]. - LME nickel inventory stands at 286,071 tons, a decrease of 240 tons from the previous day, while global refined nickel production has increased by 22.8% year-on-year [1][2]. Industry Chain Status - The entire nickel industry chain is in a state of dormancy, with upstream mining prices high but lacking domestic demand, and downstream processing enterprises experiencing a sharp decline in operating rates [3]. Short-term Price Forecast - The main contract for Shanghai nickel is expected to test the key support level of 130,000 yuan per ton, with multiple pressures from macroeconomic factors, weak fundamentals, and policy adjustments making price increases difficult [4]. - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance, with light or no positions during the holiday, while traders should adopt a quick in-and-out strategy [4]. - Post-holiday, the focus will shift back to fundamentals, with potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics as downstream production resumes, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [4].