星石投资1月投资手记：中国核心资产有望迎来系统性重估 2026重点关注两大主线

Market Review - The market experienced a volatile upward trend in January, with increased activity and risk appetite, particularly in small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, reflecting a spring rally [1] - In the first half of January, themes such as commercial aerospace and AI applications gained traction, leading to a sustained increase in trading volume and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high [1] - Mid-January saw policy signals that cooled market enthusiasm, resulting in a shift to a more stable phase, with cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals performing strongly due to price increase cues [1] Market Outlook - The U.S. actions in Venezuela and Greenland, along with statements at the Davos Forum, indicate a clear intention to alter the existing international order, accelerating the end of the old system [2] - The transition from efficiency to security prioritization in global order reconstruction will increase the importance of supply chain and resource security, driving demand for physical assets like gold, energy, and key minerals [2] - The evolution of the global order will continue to erode the dollar liquidity system centered around U.S. Treasuries, with the misuse of long-arm jurisdiction by the U.S. accelerating the de-dollarization process, significantly impacting global capital flows [2] Economic Insights - China's GDP growth in Q4 2025 exceeded expectations at 4.5%, supported by a balance between new and old economic drivers, despite traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure being sluggish [3] - The transition to a stable asset-liability ratio for households is underway, as the decline in property prices and stock markets has led to a reduction in total wealth, but with a stabilization trend expected as loans cease to grow [3] - The decline in the proportion of real estate in total assets will lessen the impact of falling property prices on household wealth, coupled with ongoing growth in savings, contributing to the recovery of the traditional economy [3] Core Asset Revaluation - China’s stable policy environment, complete supply chain, and large market size provide a relatively certain investment landscape [4] - The focus on domestic demand in 2026, along with the stabilization of household asset-liability ratios, is expected to support the recovery of the traditional economy and enhance global confidence in China [4] - Since Q3 2025, net inflows of foreign exchange have been observed, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. and a trend of RMB appreciation, which will bolster domestic asset prices [4] Investment Strategy - The market's upward momentum in 2024 and 2025 will primarily be driven by valuation, with signs of profit stabilization in 2025 contributing less to market growth [5] - The current risk premium in A-shares has returned to a historically low level, limiting the space for further valuation-driven market increases [5] - In 2026, high-growth sectors such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and traditional industries are expected to see profit recovery, with performance becoming a key driver for market advancement [6] - Investment focus will be on two main themes: high-growth industries like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and military, as well as sectors like transportation, discretionary consumption, and real estate that are improving supply-demand dynamics [6]