国际观察丨美国想搞新的核军控条约，有戏吗？

Core Viewpoint - The expiration of the New START treaty between the US and Russia raises questions about the feasibility of a new nuclear arms control agreement, especially given the current political climate and historical negotiation challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Treaty Background and Implications - The New START treaty, signed in 2010, aimed to limit the deployment of strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems between the US and Russia [2]. - Analysts suggest that the Trump administration's push for a new treaty is driven by a desire for absolute security and the inclusion of advanced weapon systems, which Russia is unlikely to accept [2][3]. Group 2: Negotiation Challenges - Historical context indicates that significant arms control treaties have taken years to negotiate, with examples like the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty taking several years to finalize [4]. - Current low levels of mutual trust between the US and Russia complicate the prospects for a new treaty, with analysts noting that even if conditions were favorable, negotiations would still require several years [4]. Group 3: Political Barriers in the US - The Trump administration would need to secure support from Congress to ratify any new treaty, which has become increasingly difficult due to political polarization [5]. - Historical data shows a decline in bipartisan support for arms control agreements, with the Senate's approval for the New START treaty dropping to 71 votes in 2010, compared to much higher levels during the Cold War [5].