国际观察｜美国想搞新的核军控条约，有戏吗？

Core Viewpoint - The expiration of the New START treaty between the US and Russia marks a significant shift in nuclear arms control, with the Trump administration advocating for a new treaty that may not align with international expectations and faces substantial negotiation challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Treaty Background and Implications - The New START treaty, signed in 2010, aimed to limit the deployment of strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems between the US and Russia [2]. - Analysts suggest that the Trump administration's desire for a new treaty reflects a strategy of "great power competition," as it seeks to include advanced weapon systems and additional countries in nuclear arms control discussions [2]. Group 2: Challenges in Negotiation - Historical context indicates that previous arms control treaties have taken years to negotiate, with significant complexities involved in reaching agreements [4]. - The current low level of mutual trust between the US and Russia complicates the prospects for a new treaty, with analysts noting that even if conditions were favorable, negotiations would still require several years [4]. Group 3: Political Landscape in the US - The need for congressional approval poses a significant barrier to the establishment of a new arms control treaty, as the current political climate is marked by polarization and declining bipartisan support for such agreements [6]. - Research indicates that the focus of Congress on arms control has diminished, with decisions increasingly influenced by party lines rather than national interest [6].