Ethereum Co-Founder Vitalik Buterin Made $70K From Prediction Markets Last Year. His Edge? 'Crazy Things Won't Happen'

Core Insights - Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin achieved a return of approximately 16% by betting against irrational market predictions, earning $70,000 on a capital of $440,000 in 2022 [1][2] - Buterin focuses on political and technology markets, which he identifies as more susceptible to extreme predictions, and he often bets against these "crazy" forecasts [2] Market Strategy - The strategy employed by Buterin involves identifying markets in "crazy mode" and betting that the extreme predictions will not materialize [1] - He has previously made significant profits from prediction markets, including $58,000 from betting on the 2020 U.S. presidential election [3] Prediction Markets - Buterin expresses enthusiasm for prediction markets as a promising application of Ethereum, noting their potential to be more accurate than traditional polls [4] - He suggests that combining prediction markets with diverse news sources can enhance user information compared to relying on a single source [4] Vulnerabilities - Despite the potential of prediction markets, Buterin points out that there are vulnerabilities, particularly concerning oracles that provide real-world data, which can be manipulated [5] - An example of this vulnerability was highlighted by an incident involving market manipulation related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, resulting in unauthorized changes and profits of $9,300 [5]