刘和平：一旦高市压倒性胜选，日本军国主义复活将再无障碍

Group 1 - The core observation of the upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election is that the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party is expected to surpass the majority threshold, with the real question being how many seats they will win, particularly whether they will achieve a two-thirds majority [2][3] - Achieving a two-thirds majority would allow Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo to push for amendments to Japan's "Peace Constitution," indicating a significant shift in Japan's political landscape and public sentiment towards constitutional reform [2][3] - The election is not only crucial for Kishi's political future but also for Japan's national trajectory and the future dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region [3] Group 2 - If the ruling coalition secures a significant victory, it could further entrench the LDP's dominance in Japanese politics, undermining hopes for a competitive multi-party system that emerged during the last election when the LDP lost its majority [5][6] - The LDP's historical dominance, particularly under a right-wing agenda, raises concerns about the long-term implications for Japan's political ecology and the potential resurgence of militaristic nationalism [6] - The support from U.S. President Trump for Kishi ahead of the election suggests a strategic alignment between the U.S. and Japan's right-wing politics, potentially reinforcing military alliances and shifting regional power dynamics [8][9] Group 3 - The potential for a strong LDP victory could signify a shift in U.S. strategy, with Trump possibly looking to Japan to take a more assertive role in countering China, thereby allowing the U.S. to focus on domestic issues [11][12] - The removal of barriers to constitutional reform in Japan could lead to a revival of militarism, with the possibility of heightened tensions with neighboring countries being used to rally domestic support for such changes [12]