TC Energy Corporation (TRP): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - TC Energy Corporation (TRP) is viewed positively due to its disciplined execution, conservative risk management, and long-term growth potential, despite current market valuations [1][5]. Financial Performance - TRP's share price was $59.91 as of February 5th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 22.59 and 21.64 respectively [1]. - The company reported a steady Q3 2025 performance, aligning with expectations and guiding capital expenditures at the low end of the $5.5–$6.0 billion range for 2025 [2]. - The dividend remains secure, with growth anticipated at the lower end of 3–5%, which is sufficient to keep pace with inflation [3]. Growth Outlook - Management indicated that long-term growth is sustainable beyond 2028, although they are cautious about extending guidance further until project returns are clearly understood [3]. - Upcoming initiatives are expected to increase spending to approximately $7 billion annually by 2028–29, indicating a robust pipeline of opportunities [3]. Market Position - TRP shares are currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.5, reflecting market expectations, while the dividend yield of 4.45% is below the five-year average of 6.02% [4]. - The company's regulated and infrastructure pipeline assets are considered high-quality holdings in North America, providing dependable cash flow and capital discipline [5]. Investment Perspective - Although TRP is not currently a bargain, its operational competence and long-term growth potential make it a cornerstone holding, with opportunities for accumulation if yields rise closer to 5.5–6.0% [5]. - The company's performance exemplifies reliable, compounding competence without excessive risk [5].