ConocoPhillips Stock Still Looks Cheap - What's The Best Play Here?

Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips reported strong cash flow and plans to return 45% of its operating cash flow to shareholders, indicating that the stock appears undervalued [1] Financial Performance - ConocoPhillips achieved a full-year revenue of $60.279 billion, reflecting a 6.78% increase year-over-year [2] - The company's cash flow from operations (CFO) was $19.872 billion, slightly down from $20.14 billion the previous year, but still representing about one-third of its revenue [2] Dividend Security - The dividend appears secure, especially after an 8% increase in the last quarter [3] - Analysts project revenue of $52.52 billion in 2026 and $59.85 billion in 2027, leading to an average revenue estimate of $56.2 billion for the next 12 months [4] - Assuming one-third of revenue translates to CFO, the projected cash flow would be $18.7 billion, allowing for $6.23 billion in shareholder payments [4] Shareholder Returns - Total dividends and buybacks could reach $9 billion, exceeding the expected CFO of $6.23 billion, indicating that dividend payments remain manageable [5] - If CFO margins improve to 35%, the NTM CFO could rise to $19.67 billion, allowing for $8.85 billion in shareholder returns, sufficient to maintain the same level of dividends and buybacks as in 2025 [5]