“工业牙齿”价格大涨，谁在拉动？

Core Insights - The price of tungsten, known as "industrial teeth," has been continuously rising, attracting market attention due to its role as a key raw material in high-end manufacturing sectors such as photovoltaic tungsten wire and electric vehicle motors [1] Price Trends - As of February 6, the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate is reported at 675,000 RMB per standard ton, an increase of 46.7% since the beginning of 2026 [2] - The price of 65% white tungsten concentrate is reported at 674,000 RMB per standard ton, up 46.8% year-to-date. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) is priced at 990,000 RMB per ton, reflecting a 47.8% increase. European APT prices range from 1,100 to 1,398 USD per ton (equivalent to 676,000 to 859,000 RMB per ton), up 35.8% [3] - Tungsten powder is priced at 1,650 RMB per kilogram, a 52.8% increase, while tungsten carbide powder is at 1,600 RMB per kilogram, up 53.9% [3] - In January, the average price of 65% black tungsten concentrate in China was 510,600 RMB per ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 26.69% and a year-on-year increase of 254.75% [3] Supply Constraints - Global tungsten production is projected to be approximately 82,800 tons in 2024, with a slight increase to 85,500 tons by 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate of less than 2%. Factors such as tightening resource endowments, extended development cycles, and insufficient capital investment are reinforcing supply constraints [4] - The current supply situation remains tight, with challenges including reduced mining quotas, declining shipments from tungsten mines, and unstable import volumes, leading to a pronounced supply-demand imbalance in the global tungsten market [4] Demand Dynamics - Explosive growth in demand, particularly in the renewable energy and photovoltaic sectors, is identified as the core driver for rising tungsten powder prices. The strategic value of tungsten as a key functional material is increasingly recognized, enhancing overall industry prosperity [6] - By 2025, the market penetration rate of tungsten wire in silicon wafer cutting is expected to exceed 60%, marking a phase of scaled application. The industrialization of heterojunction (HJT) battery technology is anticipated to add approximately 6,400 tons of new tungsten demand by 2026 [6] Company Performance - Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549) reported a revenue of 46.469 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.37%, with a net profit of 2.311 billion RMB, up 35.08% [7] - Xianglu Tungsten Industry (002842) forecasts a net profit of 125 million to 180 million RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 239.66% to 301.11%. The company benefits from improved pricing power and increased sales volume, particularly in hard alloy and photovoltaic tungsten wire products [8] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry (002378) anticipates a net profit of 260 million to 320 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth of 51% to 86%. The company leverages its full tungsten industry chain advantages to enhance product performance and stabilize supply capabilities [8]