Sugar Prices Sink on the Outlook for a Global Sugar Glut to Continue

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing a decline due to expectations of global surpluses, with NY sugar reaching a 3-month low and London sugar hitting a 5-year low [2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.16 (-1.12%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -3.50 (-0.86%) [1]. - Sugar prices have been on a gradual decline over the past three months, influenced by the outlook for global sugar surpluses [2]. Group 2: Global Sugar Production and Surplus - Analysts predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [3]. - Covrig Analytics raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT, projecting a decrease to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [6]. Group 3: Regional Production Insights - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season increased by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.236 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 50.78% [2]. - India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 for the 2025-26 season is up +22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate raised to 31 MMT, an increase of +18.8% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Export Dynamics - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply gluts, with a quota system introduced in 2022/23 [5]. - The food ministry in India announced that mills would be allowed to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [5].