兴证策略：港股情绪指数已到底部区域

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Sentiment Index has been uniquely constructed using eight indicators across four dimensions: volume, price, capital, and derivatives, effectively identifying market turning points [1] - The index shows that when it breaks above 70 or below 30, the probability of the Hang Seng Index rising or falling in the next 1, 5, 10, or 20 days is approximately 70%-80% [1] - From December 31, 2018, to January 2, 2026, the excess returns from a long strategy based on the sentiment index for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index are 43.9% and 159.8%, respectively, with annualized volatility of 17.0% and 28.0% compared to the indices' own volatility of 23.8% and 32.3% [1] Group 2 - As of last Friday, the Hong Kong Stock Sentiment Index has decreased by over 24.5% week-on-week to 39.9°, reaching levels last seen on December 19 of the previous year and falling below the rolling one-year average by 1.5 standard deviations [1] - The short-selling ratio has increased to 17.5% over the past five weeks, placing it in the 93rd percentile for the past year, contributing significantly to the weakening sentiment [1] - Additional factors contributing to the decline in sentiment include the drop in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the percentage of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks reaching 60-day highs, and the decrease in trading volume of small and mid-cap stocks [1]