华金证券：春季行情未完 持股过节

Group 1 - The short-term performance of A-shares before the Spring Festival may influence the market after the holiday, with historical data showing that in 16 years since 2010, there were 9 instances where the Shanghai Composite Index rose or fell in the first five trading days before the festival and then moved in the opposite direction on the first trading day after the festival [8][2] - Economic and profit expectations during the Spring Festival may improve, with anticipated favorable data for travel and consumption, as well as a potential rebound in real estate sales due to low base effects and strong policy support [9][2] - Liquidity is expected to remain loose during the Spring Festival, with the central bank likely to increase net injections to counter seasonal tightening, and stock market funds may maintain a certain level before accelerating back after the holiday [9][2] Group 2 - After a short-term adjustment, technology growth and cyclical sectors are expected to outperform, supported by policy and industry trends, with historical patterns indicating that leading sectors may regain strength post-adjustment [10][3] - Current observations suggest that technology growth and certain cyclical industries are likely to remain dominant, driven by supportive policies and ongoing industry trends, particularly in commercial aerospace and AI [10][3] - The consumption sector's short-term rebound may be a result of valuation recovery, but its sustainability is uncertain due to weak consumer confidence and the absence of a profit turning point [11][3] Group 3 - Industry allocation recommendations suggest a balanced approach towards technology growth, certain cyclical sectors, and consumption, with specific industries like automotive, military, beauty care, machinery, and communication expected to perform well in 2025 [11][3] - The current sentiment towards growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, and computing is relatively low, indicating potential for future gains [11][3] - Suggested low-entry allocations include sectors with upward policy and industry trends, such as electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), media (AI applications, gaming), and healthcare [11][3]