美国想搞新军控条约意欲何为

Core Viewpoint - The expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the US and Russia has prompted discussions about a new arms control agreement, with President Trump advocating for a modernized treaty, which analysts believe may face significant opposition from Russia and the international community [1] Group 1: Calculations Behind the New Treaty - Calculation 1: Analysts suggest that the Trump administration's decision to allow the New START to expire is part of a broader strategy of "great power competition," aiming to include advanced weapon systems in a new treaty, which Russia is unlikely to accept due to its strategic reliance on nuclear deterrence [2] - Calculation 2: The US seeks to expand the nuclear arms control framework to include more countries, but analysts note that the disparity in nuclear arsenals between the US, Russia, and other nations makes this unlikely, as countries like the UK and France have rejected participation in such negotiations [3] - Calculation 3: The core logic of US-Russia arms control is based on ensuring mutual vulnerability for strategic stability, but the US's development of a missile defense system, referred to as "Iron Dome," is seen as provocative by Russia, complicating the nuclear strategic environment [4] Group 2: Challenges in Negotiating a New Treaty - Observation: Analysts believe that achieving a comprehensive, modern, and long-term new treaty as desired by Trump will be challenging, given the historical context of US-Soviet arms control negotiations, which have often taken years to finalize [5] - Domestic Obstacles: For the Trump administration to advance a new arms control treaty, it requires support from the US Congress, which has shown declining interest in arms control agreements amid increasing political polarization, making bipartisan compromise difficult [6] - Political Dynamics: Research indicates that Congress members are more likely to vote on arms control treaties based on party lines rather than national interest, suggesting that reaching a new binding arms control agreement between the US and Russia in the near term is unlikely [7]