丙午年春节出行前瞻：95亿人次大迁徙 将出现四波打车高峰

Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush in China is expected to reach a historic high of 9.5 billion trips in 2026, marking a significant shift in travel patterns and consumer behavior [1][2] - The traditional "one-way journey" is being replaced by a decentralized travel model, with approximately 80% of trips expected to be by private car, and new trends such as "reverse New Year" where families travel to cities and bring pets home [1][4] Travel Trends - The travel volume during the Spring Festival is projected to hit 9.5 billion trips, with self-driving trips accounting for around 80% [1][2] - High peaks in travel demand are anticipated before and after the festival, with specific dates identified for peak travel times [2] - Didi forecasts four significant peaks in ride-hailing demand during the 40-day travel period, driven by various needs such as returning home, visiting relatives, and vacationing [2] Market Dynamics - The Spring Festival has evolved from a "survival-type flow" of 2.91 billion trips in 2016 to a "development-type flow" of 9.5 billion trips in 2026, reflecting improvements in transportation infrastructure and changing consumer preferences [2][6] - The demand for flexible travel options, such as ride-sharing, is increasing, with a notable rise in charging and refueling needs during the travel period [3][4] Consumer Behavior Changes - The rise of "reverse New Year" signifies a shift in family dynamics and consumer spending, moving from traditional gift-giving to experiences and services [4][6] - The trend of traveling with pets is becoming increasingly common, indicating a change in travel preferences among consumers [5][6] - The growth of cross-province tourism and the combination of returning home with vacationing is expected to account for 40% of travel, showcasing resilience in domestic demand [6][7] Future Outlook - The emergence of younger generations (post-2000s and post-2010s) as the main force in travel is anticipated to fundamentally reshape the Spring Festival travel model [7] - The travel patterns are expected to transition from concentrated homeward journeys to more dispersed and staggered flows, while maintaining the cultural significance of family reunions [7][8]