国信策略：持股过节，还是持币过节？

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a bullish atmosphere, with historical spring market trends indicating a potential index increase of around 20%. The maximum increase of the Shanghai Composite Index since December 17, 2025, is 9.8%, suggesting further room for growth in the current spring market [1]. Market Trends - The A-share market typically experiences a reversal in trading volume after the Spring Festival, with a 22.3% increase in trading volume in the week following the holiday compared to the week before [1][5]. - Historical data shows an 81% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the week before the Spring Festival, with an average increase of 1.8%, and a 76% probability of rising in the week after, with an average increase of 1.3% [1][4]. Style Performance - Growth and value styles perform evenly before and after the Spring Festival, while large-cap and small-cap styles show distinct performance differences. Large-cap stocks outperform small-cap stocks before the festival, while small-cap stocks dominate after [2][4]. - In the week following the Spring Festival, the probability of the National 2000 Index (small-cap) rising is 87.5%, with an average increase of 4.1%, compared to the 71.4% probability and 0.8% increase for the CSI 300 Index (large-cap) [2]. Fund Flows - Leverage funds typically see significant outflows before the Spring Festival, with an average net buy of -6.69 billion yuan, while they experience inflows after the holiday, averaging a net buy of 1.42 billion yuan [5][6]. - ETF funds show a net inflow before the Spring Festival, averaging 21.43 billion yuan, but experience a decrease in net inflow after the holiday, averaging 17.19 billion yuan [5][6]. Sector Allocation - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI applications, remains a focal point for investment. There is also a potential for traditional value sectors, such as undervalued real estate and liquor, to perform well [7]. - The cyclical sector is expected to benefit from new demand driven by AI and renewable energy, with a focus on upstream resources [7]. Policy Environment - The macroeconomic policy remains positive, with government initiatives aimed at enhancing fiscal spending and project execution, which may support market performance [6][7].