广发策略：天时地利人和 备战马年新一轮上涨周期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report suggests that despite recent market pullbacks causing concerns among investors, the current level around 4000 points presents an opportunity to regain confidence and prepare for the first wave of upward movement in the Year of the Horse [1] Group 2 - The report anticipates a favorable market environment in the next 1-2 months, indicating a potential "timing, location, and human factors" scenario for an upward trend in A-shares [1] Group 3 - Timing: The report highlights that starting from February, the spring market rally enters its highest probability phase, with historical data showing a 100% probability of small-cap indices rising between the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, and an 87.5% probability of rising in February [1] Group 4 - Location: Following the release of annual report forecasts, negative disturbances in the fundamentals are expected to subside. The report notes that in the annual report forecasts disclosed by the end of January, the proportion of companies with low expectations, losses, or negative growth reached a new high compared to 2024 [1] Group 5 - Human factors: The report indicates that in a bullish market trend, each time the Wind All A Index falls below the 20-day moving average, it often presents a good opportunity for increasing positions approximately one week later [1]