提振居民消费：从政策驱动到内生动力的转型之路

Core Viewpoint - The current stage of China's consumer market exhibits a distinct characteristic of structural upgrading alongside weak driving forces, with a focus on enhancing resident consumption and releasing consumption potential as core policy directions for the next five years [1][13]. Group 1: Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer rate is determined by two core dimensions: the average consumption propensity and the proportion of disposable income to GDP, which are interrelated and essential for targeted policy measures [2]. - There is a clear trend of consumption upgrading in China, with service consumption, quality consumption, and green consumption emerging as new hotspots, while the marginal effects of traditional policy-driven consumption are diminishing [2][4]. Group 2: Consumption Structure and Growth - China's final consumption expenditure accounted for approximately 54.4% of nominal GDP as of 2024, significantly lower than developed economies in East Asia and the West, indicating untapped growth potential [3]. - The proportion of service consumption in China's total consumption remains stable at 46%-47%, which is notably lower than the over 56% seen in developed economies, highlighting a core shortcoming in consumption upgrading [4]. Group 3: Service Consumption Growth - Service consumption has become the core engine of growth in the consumer market, with spending projected to reach nearly 19.1 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 60% since 2020 [5]. - The share of service consumption in total resident consumption has shown a steady increase from 40.31% in 2014 to 46.11% in 2025, indicating a shift towards a more balanced consumption structure [5]. Group 4: Policy Impact on Consumption - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan in special funds for the "old-for-new" subsidy policy for home appliances and automobiles, which has shown diminishing returns as the policy nears its conclusion [7][12]. - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales of related goods exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people, but the effectiveness of such policies is declining as consumer behavior adapts [8]. Group 5: Challenges to Consumption Growth - The consumer market faces significant challenges due to income distribution imbalance, high precautionary savings, and pressure on household balance sheets, leading to a reluctance to spend [14][20]. - Household debt levels have risen sharply, with debt-to-GDP ratios stabilizing around 62%, which constrains disposable income and limits consumer spending capacity [20]. Group 6: Strategic Recommendations for Consumption Growth - To stimulate consumption, it is essential to focus on five dimensions: solidifying income foundations, unlocking service consumption potential, repairing household balance sheets, enhancing consumer quality and capacity, and transforming policy support systems [22][23]. - Optimizing initial income distribution and enhancing disposable income are critical to overcoming the core constraints of consumer spending [22].