国内棉价窄幅震荡 外棉价格连续下跌

Core Viewpoint - The domestic cotton market shows resilience supported by macro policies, while international cotton prices are declining due to various negative factors, leading to an increasing price gap between domestic and international markets, reaching a ten-year high [1] Price Review - Domestic cotton supply is sufficient as new cotton processing nears completion, with prices showing strong resistance to declines, resulting in a narrow fluctuation trend. The main contract settlement price for Zhengzhou cotton futures is 14,643 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton or 0.6% from the previous week. The average price of the national cotton price B index is 15,929 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.1% [2] - Internationally, the market is influenced by macroeconomic turmoil, with the main contract settlement price for New York cotton futures at 62.01 cents/pound, down 1.43 cents/pound or 2.3%. The average price of the international cotton index (M) is 71.31 cents/pound, equivalent to an import cost of 12,117 yuan/ton, down 277 yuan/ton or 2.2% from the previous week. The domestic cotton price is 3,812 yuan/ton higher than the international price, with the price gap expanding by 259 yuan/ton [2] Textile Market - The domestic C32S cotton yarn price averages 21,440 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton or 0.3%, while the average price for imported C32S cotton yarn is 20,917 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan/ton or 0.3%. Conventional foreign yarn is 523 yuan/ton lower than domestic yarn. Polyester staple fiber prices decreased by 137 yuan/ton to 6,559 yuan/ton [3] Market Outlook - The ambiguity in U.S. policy continues to disrupt the market, with a new trade agreement between the U.S. and India potentially reshaping future trade dynamics. The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has raised concerns about policy tightening, although his recent support for rate cuts has shifted market expectations. The risk of a federal government shutdown remains due to ongoing partisan divisions [4] - The international cotton supply is in a loose structure, with Brazilian cotton exports decreasing by 23.8% year-on-year to 317,000 tons in January. This has led to an increase in U.S. cotton export contracts, with a 23% week-on-week rise to 56,700 tons, primarily from Vietnam, Pakistan, and China [5] - Domestic cotton supply is ample, with a sales rate of 65.7% as of February 5, up 22.5 percentage points year-on-year. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, market activity is expected to slow down, with textile companies focusing on inventory digestion and completing existing orders [6]