Ernst & Young drops a blunt reality check on the economy

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy appears strong based on GDP growth, consumer spending, and business investment, but this strength conceals underlying issues [1][2] - The economic growth is supported by a narrow group of factors, including wealthier consumers, booming financial markets, and significant AI-driven investments by tech companies [2][4] Employment and Inflation - Recent employment data shows payrolls increased by 50,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% and average hourly earnings at $37.02, indicating a slow hiring pace and uneven strength [6] - Inflation data reveals a year-over-year CPI increase of 2.7% and a core CPI increase of 2.6%, suggesting inflation is nearing normal levels, yet many households still face financial pressure [6] GDP and Consumer Spending - The latest GDP estimate shows a real GDP growth of 4.4% annualized, which reflects an average strength that masks economic polarization [6] - Consumer spending data indicates a 0.5% month-over-month increase in Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for October and November, aligning with the notion that spending appears solid due to a few affluent cohorts [6] Manufacturing Sector - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is reported at 52.6, indicating expansion, but growth remains uneven across different sectors [7] Economic Paradox - The core thesis presented by economists suggests that while the economy looks fine on the surface, it is growing unevenly, which is not captured by average metrics [8]