原油周报：地缘风波再起，油价宽幅震荡

Market Overview - The recent oil market has shown wide fluctuations, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [5][43]. - The EIA data indicated a significant drop in US oil production due to the winter storm "Fein," with production falling to 13.215 million barrels per day [6][44]. Price Data - As of February 6, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $68.05 per barrel, down $2.64 (-3.73%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $63.55 per barrel, down $1.66 (-2.55%); Dubai crude futures settled at $67.57 per barrel, down $0.29 (-0.43%) [6][44]. - The price fluctuations are attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the impact of the winter storm on production and demand [6][44]. Geopolitical Factors - The US-Iran negotiations have been a focal point, with Iran maintaining two key red lines: opposing the removal of sanctions and excluding missile programs from negotiations. The outcome of these talks could significantly impact oil prices [5][43]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, with both sides continuing high-intensity attacks, particularly on energy infrastructure, contributing to market volatility [5][43]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial oil inventories by 3.455 million barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, indicating mixed demand trends [6][28]. - The downstream sector experienced a significant increase in refined product demand week-on-week, although gasoline demand saw a decline due to consumer behavior influenced by weather concerns [6][28]. Refinery Operations - The capacity utilization rate for domestic refineries was reported at 81.81%, with independent refineries at 60%, affected by maintenance and external sanctions [72]. - Processing margins for main refineries were at 770.95 yuan per ton, while independent refineries saw a decrease in profit margins by 13.85% [72].