Core Viewpoint - The overwhelming victory of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to sustain the upward trend in the Japanese stock market, while putting further downward pressure on the yen and government bonds [1][2]. Economic Impact - The LDP has secured more than two-thirds of the absolute majority in the House of Representatives, significantly exceeding some investors' expectations [1]. - Kishida's economic stimulus policies are anticipated to have a clearer path for implementation, which is seen as positive for the Nikkei index [1]. - The Japanese stock market, particularly the Tokyo Stock Exchange index, reached a historical high last week, with an increase of over 8% this year, compared to a mere 2% rise in global developed market stock indices [1]. Currency and Bond Market - The yen has depreciated, with the exchange rate against the US dollar slightly falling to 157.61, and a cumulative decline of 1.6% last week, nearing the 160 mark that previously triggered intervention by Japanese authorities [1]. - Analysts suggest that the natural trajectory for the yen is further depreciation, with expectations of potential intervention by Japanese officials in the low range [5]. - Concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policies and temporary tax relief measures are driving the risk of further selling in Japanese government bonds [7]. Sector Focus - The market is expected to focus on sectors such as defense and nuclear energy, which align with Kishida's national investment agenda [4]. - Investment in defense, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors is likely to benefit significantly from Kishida's plans for increased spending [4]. Market Sentiment - Despite existing concerns, Japanese government bonds showed some recovery last week, with upward pressure on yields easing, particularly for long-term bonds [9]. - The overwhelming victory of the LDP may provide Kishida with more political maneuvering space to address the demands of the bond market [9].
日本大选高市早苗胜出！日股或借势冲新高 日元逼近160关口、国债再临抛售压力
智通财经网·2026-02-08 23:41