春节前最后一个交易周 持股还是持币？券商最新研判来了

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a cautious sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival, with the prevailing advice from institutions being to "hold stocks during the holiday" due to historical trends indicating a higher probability of market gains post-holiday [1][3]. Market Trends - Historical data shows that the probability of market gains after the Spring Festival is significantly higher than before, with a 70% chance of an increase in the first five trading days post-holiday, and the expected gain for 2024 is projected at 4.85% [1][2]. - The market typically exhibits a pattern of "reduced volume before the holiday and increased volume afterward" [1]. Institutional Recommendations - Multiple securities firms, including Guangda Securities and Huajin Securities, suggest maintaining stock positions through the holiday, anticipating a rebound in market activity post-festival [3][4]. - Citic Securities indicates that the spring market rally is likely to continue after the holiday, despite recent adjustments, and recommends holding stocks during the holiday [5][6]. Economic and Liquidity Outlook - Economic and profit expectations are anticipated to improve during the Spring Festival, with favorable consumer data expected [4]. - Liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential increases in net injections by the central bank and a stable level of market funds before the holiday [4]. Sector Performance - Technology growth and certain cyclical sectors are expected to outperform, supported by policy initiatives and ongoing industry trends [5][7]. - There is a potential for a rebound in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, computing, chemicals, and non-bank financials, which have historically low valuation percentiles [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Style Rotation - The market sentiment is expected to stabilize post-adjustment, with a notable rotation in style from large-cap to small-cap stocks after the holiday [6][7]. - The "Spring Festival effect" and increasing event catalysts are likely to create a favorable environment for market recovery [7].