中信证券：原奶供需矛盾短期缓解 淘汰牛价格继续走高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a slight increase in dairy supply by 2025, with liquid milk demand under pressure while solid milk demand remains strong [1] - In January 2026, raw milk prices are expected to remain high, with short-term alleviation of the raw milk supply-demand contradiction, and leading dairy companies continuing to advance deep processing layouts [1] - Since January, the price of culling cows has risen to over 20 yuan/kg, leading major livestock companies to expand their beef cattle business [1] Group 2 - It is projected that by 2024, the cumulative reduction in livestock numbers may exceed 10%, indicating a potential decline in beef supply by 2026 [1] - Based on the previous beef cycle's reduction and price recovery rhythm, it is anticipated that there is still upward price potential for live cattle in this cycle [1] - The industry outlook remains positive for the synergy between beef cattle and raw milk cycles, recommending leading livestock breeding companies and industry leaders with high raw milk self-sufficiency rates [1]