光大期货：2月9日矿钢煤焦日报

Steel Industry - The national rebar production decreased by 81,500 tons week-on-week to 1.9168 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 16,100 tons [15] - Social inventory increased by 395,200 tons week-on-week to 3.6592 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 653,000 tons [15] - Factory inventory rose by 45,200 tons week-on-week to 1.5365 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 282,800 tons [15] - Rebar demand fell significantly, with a week-on-week decrease of 287,600 tons to 1.4764 million tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 375,100 tons [15] - Overall rebar inventory increased by 935,800 tons year-on-year, indicating increased supply pressure [15] - The market is concerned about the recovery pace of steel mills post-holiday, with significant pressure on inventory digestion [15] Hot Rolled Coil - National hot rolled coil production decreased slightly by 500 tons week-on-week to 3.0916 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 110,300 tons [16] - Social inventory increased by 21,200 tons week-on-week to 2.8045 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 428,600 tons [16] - Hot rolled coil demand fell by 58,700 tons week-on-week to 3.0554 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 81,100 tons [16] - The heavy truck market remains strong, with sales around 100,000 units in January 2026, a 39% increase year-on-year [16] Iron Ore - Australian shipments decreased slightly to 18.204 million tons, while Brazilian shipments increased significantly to 7.006 million tons [17][18] - China's port arrivals increased to 26.692 million tons, up by 437,000 tons week-on-week [18] - Iron water production increased by 6,000 tons week-on-week to 2.2858 million tons, with some steel mills delaying restarts [18] - Port inventories rose to 179.1468 million tons, up by 1.5642 million tons week-on-week [18] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices remained stable, while imported coal prices increased [20] - Coking coal production decreased, with independent coking enterprises showing improved production profitability [20] - Total coking coal inventory increased by 612,900 tons, indicating a slight rise in demand [20] - Coke production levels are stabilizing, with a slight increase in demand from steel mills [19] Scrap Steel - Scrap steel prices decreased, with the national scrap steel price index down by 3 yuan/ton to 2,198.4 yuan/ton [21] - Daily average scrap steel arrivals at steel mills decreased to 472,200 tons, down by 26,800 tons week-on-week [21] - Scrap steel demand fell, with daily consumption decreasing by 80,200 tons to 413,000 tons [21] - Short-process steel mills are experiencing expanded losses, impacting their demand for scrap steel [21] Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon prices are supported by costs, but upward momentum is limited [23] - Inventory levels for manganese silicon increased slightly, indicating a potential slowdown in demand [23] - Silicon iron procurement is nearing completion, with limited new demand support [24]