智通财经网·2026-02-09 01:25Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its earnings forecast for Swire Properties (01972) and keeps an outperform rating with a target price of HKD 26.5, implying a 4.3%/4.5% dividend yield for 2025-26 and an 8% upside potential [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The performance of luxury shopping centers in mainland China is outstanding, with retail sales in Shanghai and Beijing expected to grow by 49.6% and 11.2% year-on-year in 2025, respectively [2] - New projects are progressing as planned, with the first phase of Guangzhou Julong Bay Taikoo Li launched by the end of 2025, and other projects in Sanya, Shanghai, and Lujiazui expected to be completed starting in 2026 [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Office Market - The overall occupancy rate of the company's Hong Kong office buildings is 91%, a year-on-year decrease of 2 percentage points, while the occupancy rate in core areas like Taikoo Place increased by 1 percentage point to 96% [3] - Office rental rates are expected to decline by 13-15% in 2025 due to competitive market conditions, with the company prioritizing occupancy and tenant retention [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Retail Recovery - Retail sales in Hong Kong's luxury mall Taikoo Place and mass-market mall Taikoo City Center are expected to grow by 5.6% and 2.7% year-on-year in 2025, outperforming the overall retail sector in Hong Kong [4] - The recovery is attributed to the resurgence of luxury brand sales and the company's ongoing tenant adjustments and marketing efforts to attract diverse customer flows [4]