2026：观“物”察变 把握全球经济趋势

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank projects a global economic growth rate of 2.6% for 2026, indicating a moderate growth environment with significant challenges [1] - The chief economist of ICBC International emphasizes the importance of returning to a deep observation of "things" to understand structural shifts in the economy amidst a rapidly evolving macro landscape [2] Structural Changes in the Economy - The evolution of "things" is occurring across five dimensions: globalization, industrial chains, value chains, natural resources, and technology [3] - Globalization is undergoing a structural shift, balancing efficiency, safety, and stability due to geopolitical tensions and rising technological barriers [3] - The focus of industrial competition is shifting towards R&D capabilities, manufacturing precision, supply chain collaboration, and organizational capabilities [3] - Value chains are increasingly concentrating on knowledge-intensive segments such as R&D design and data elements, moving from quantity production to value creation [3] - Resource allocation is being reshaped by energy constraints and carbon emission pressures, necessitating more efficient and sustainable growth methods [3] - New technologies, particularly AI, are transforming production functions and the combination of labor, capital, and technology [3] Growth Divergence - Structural differences between developed economies and emerging markets are expected to persist, with developed economies facing challenges like aging populations and limited fiscal space [4] - The IMF forecasts economic growth rates of 1.8% for developed countries and 4.2% for emerging markets in 2026, highlighting the ongoing divergence [4] - Emerging markets are experiencing internal restructuring, with some economies transitioning from rapid expansion to efficiency and quality-driven growth [5] AI's Contribution to Economic Growth - AI is beginning to contribute positively to economic growth, but its macroeconomic effects will take time to materialize through industry diffusion and production restructuring [7] - The OECD estimates that AI could increase annual total factor productivity (TFP) growth by 0.25 to 0.6 percentage points over the next decade, depending on technology adoption and organizational adjustments [7] - The IMF projects a cumulative TFP increase of about 0.7% over the next ten years due to AI, translating to an annual increase of approximately 0.07 percentage points [7] Global Trade and Supply Chain Dynamics - Geopolitical uncertainties are expected to pose significant risks to global trade in 2026, with the IMF predicting a trade growth rate of 2.6%, lower than previous years [9] - The current supply chain adjustments are seen as a self-adaptive process within the global trade system, enhancing stability and predictability despite short-term efficiency losses [10] - The focus on regional trade, nearshoring, and diversified supply sources is expected to create new opportunities for emerging economies and mid-level manufacturing countries [10] Central Bank Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy in 2026, influenced by structural changes in the labor market and the need for proactive risk management [11] - The European Central Bank's policy will be shaped by inflation dynamics and economic recovery, balancing the need for further easing with growth constraints [12] China's Role in the Global Economy - China is projected to contribute approximately 30% to global economic growth in 2026, acting as a stabilizer and driving force in the global economy [13] - The country is expected to transition from capacity output to standard-setting, influencing global industrial dynamics and promoting a multipolar division of labor [14] - Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, China aims to reshape global trade dynamics by enhancing connectivity and supporting countries facing technological barriers [14]