光大期货：2月9日软商品日报

Sugar Market - Raw sugar prices are hovering at the lower end of the range, with Stonex forecasting Brazil's Central-South sugar production for the 2026/27 season at 40.7 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from previous estimates [2] - Domestic prices from Guangxi sugar group are quoted at 5,270 to 5,370 CNY/ton, while Yunnan sugar group prices range from 5,110 to 5,180 CNY/ton [2] - The market is experiencing significant macroeconomic disturbances, with commodity prices in precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy continuing to fluctuate widely, impacting sugar prices [2][3] Domestic Sugar Production and Sales - In January, Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong provinces reported a total sugar production of 4.03 million tons, down 790,000 tons year-on-year, with a sales volume of 670,000 tons, the lowest in three years [3] - The sales rate for sugar in Guangxi is at 38%, the lowest in four years, while Yunnan's sales rate is around 54%, remaining stable compared to last year [3] - The upcoming week is expected to see continued weak sales in the domestic market, with caution advised for risks associated with the long holiday [3] Cotton Market - The supply side for the 2025/26 cotton season is expected to stabilize, with domestic cotton production and inspection volumes reaching recent highs, while future policies on cotton planting area regulation will be monitored [5] - The USDA's January report estimates global cotton production for 2025/26 at 26.03 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons from previous estimates, while U.S. cotton production is expected to decrease by 76,000 tons to 3.031 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 3.4% [5][19] - As of February 5, the national cotton inspection volume is 7.3551 million tons, an increase of 964,400 tons year-on-year [19] Cotton Demand and Retail - Textile enterprises are gradually reducing their operating loads ahead of the holiday, with the comprehensive load for yarn at 47.36%, down 1.1 percentage points week-on-week [21] - Retail sales for clothing and textiles in December reached 166.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 1.5215 trillion CNY, up 3.2% [21] Cotton Import and Export - The cotton price difference between domestic and international markets is at a high of 3,655 CNY/ton, an increase of 2,368 CNY/ton year-on-year [23] - In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a month-on-month increase of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 40,000 tons, while cumulative imports for the year totaled 1.07 million tons, down 1.55 million tons year-on-year [23] Cotton Inventory - As of mid-January, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 5.8623 million tons, an increase of 77,600 tons month-on-month and 83,300 tons year-on-year [24] - The comprehensive inventory for yarn is at 24.34 days, down 0.9 days week-on-week, while cotton yarn inventory for textile enterprises is at 34.4 days, an increase of 0.96 days week-on-week [24] International Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment remains volatile, with limited fundamental drivers, leading to a predominantly fluctuating market for cotton [25] - Recent fluctuations in precious metal prices and rising market risk aversion have influenced the cotton market, with the U.S. cotton price reaching a six-month low [25] Domestic Market Outlook - The recent central government document emphasizes the stable development of cotton and sugar industries and the improvement of cotton target price policies [26] - The current target price for cotton is set at 18,600 CNY/ton, which has remained unchanged for three years, with expectations for adjustments in the subsidy policy for 2026 [26] - Despite high commercial cotton inventories and expected increases in import volumes, the market sentiment is expected to remain volatile, with limited upward pressure on cotton prices in the short term [26]