智通财经网·2026-02-09 01:52Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the EBITDA forecast for MGM China for 2026 and 2027, with the current stock price corresponding to 6x 2026e EV/EBITDA. The firm maintains an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 16.10, which implies a 23% upside from the current stock price [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - MGM China's 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA exceeded Visible Alpha consensus expectations, with net revenue of HKD 9.617 billion (up 21% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter), recovering to 169% of 4Q19 levels [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA for 4Q25 was HKD 2.753 billion (up 29% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter), recovering to 177% of 4Q19 levels, surpassing the consensus estimate of HKD 2.449 billion [2]. - The strong performance is attributed to the continued outperformance of high-end business segments, with MGM Cotai and MGM Macau's total gaming revenue recovering to 214% and 104% of 4Q19 levels, respectively [2]. Group 2: Brand Agreement and Financial Implications - MGM China signed a new long-term brand agreement with MGM Resorts, increasing the brand usage fee from 1.75% to 3.5% of monthly net revenue, effective from 2026, with a 20-year term [3]. - The annual cap for brand usage fees will be set, with the 2026 cap at USD 188 million (up from USD 60 million in 2025) [3]. - The new fee structure is expected to negatively impact the company's net profit, estimated to be a 14% drag on CICC's net profit forecast [3]. Group 3: Management Insights - Management indicated strong hotel booking performance for the 2026 Spring Festival holiday starting February 17, 2026, with stable business performance leading up to the holiday [3].