华泰期货：双焦市场情绪转弱，价格震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The market for coke and coking coal is experiencing a shift towards a tight balance due to improved demand and limited supply, with a focus on the recovery of steel production and environmental policy enforcement in the coming period [3][8]. Supply Analysis - As of last week, the coke 2605 contract closed at 1683 CNY/ton, and the coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1130.5 CNY/ton [7]. - The capacity utilization rate for independent coke enterprises is reported at 72.20%, an increase of 0.34% [7]. - The average daily production of coke is 631,400 tons, which is an increase of 3,000 tons [7]. Demand Analysis - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills is 79.53%, up by 0.53 percentage points week-on-week and up by 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The capacity utilization rate for ironmaking is 85.69%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.22 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 0.07 percentage points [7]. - The profit margin for steel mills stands at 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week but down by 12.13 percentage points compared to last year [7]. - The average daily pig iron production is 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons week-on-week and an increase of 1,400 tons year-on-year [7]. Inventory Analysis - The coke inventory for the surveyed steel mills is 6.9374 million tons, an increase of 155,000 tons week-on-week [7]. - The coking coal inventory for the same steel mills is 8.3532 million tons, also up by 155,000 tons week-on-week [7]. - The total coking coal inventory for independent coke enterprises is 12.9187 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 570,800 tons [7]. Market Strategy - The market outlook for coking coal is expected to be volatile, while the coke market is also anticipated to experience fluctuations [9].