欧元震荡欧区经济形成双向博弈

Core Viewpoint - The current exchange rate of Euro to USD is influenced by a combination of a weakening dollar and short-term pressures on the Eurozone economy, leading to cautious market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Euro to USD Exchange Rate Trends - As of February 9, 2026, the Euro to USD exchange rate is 1.1818, showing a slight increase of 0.0010 or 0.0169% from the previous trading day [1]. - In 2025, the Euro appreciated approximately 14.4%, rising from a low of 1.0146 to a range of 1.16-1.17 by year-end [1]. - The Euro reached a high of over 1.20 in late January 2026, marking a return to this level for the first time in over four years, before stabilizing around 1.18 [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Euro Strength - The weakening of the dollar is a key driver for the long-term appreciation of the Euro, with the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to 56.92%, the lowest in 30 years [2]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) has further supported the Euro, with the Fed cutting rates three times in 2025 while the ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2.00% [2]. Group 3: Economic Pressures on the Eurozone - The Eurozone's economic recovery is under pressure, with exports declining by 3.4% year-on-year in November 2025, leading to a reduction in trade surplus from €154 billion to €99 billion [3]. - Germany, as a key driver of Eurozone growth, is facing challenges due to the Euro's appreciation, which has diminished the international price competitiveness of its products [3]. Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges - The Eurozone's inflation rate fell to 1.9% in December 2025, below the ECB's target of 2%, raising concerns about potential deflation risks [4]. - ECB officials have expressed concerns regarding the rapid appreciation of the Euro, indicating that it complicates monetary policy decisions aimed at supporting economic recovery [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook for Euro to USD Exchange Rate - Future movements of the Euro to USD exchange rate will depend on the strength of the dollar, the pace of Eurozone economic recovery, and the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Europe [5]. - Predictions for the Euro to USD exchange rate vary, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a rise to 1.23 by Q2 2026, while other institutions like Citibank anticipate a potential decline to 1.10 [5].