南方基金刘文良：景气叠加周期双轮驱动 挖掘转债市场超额收益

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market, driven by technology and cyclical sectors, is becoming a key engine for amplifying the returns of convertible bond funds, with Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A achieving a cumulative return of 63.74% over the past year and an early 2026 yield exceeding 18% [1][8]. Group 1: Performance Drivers - The core returns of convertible bond funds are supported by dual contributions from technology growth and cyclical sectors, with a focus on technology growth driven by industrial cycles as a long-term investment priority [2][9]. - Key sources of returns include the AI industry cycle and trends in military automation, while cyclical sectors focus on non-ferrous metals, machinery, and chemicals, benefiting from strong downstream demand [2][9]. - Southern Changyuan employs a "four-block building" strategy for asset allocation, focusing on high-quality equity-type convertible bonds, balanced convertible bonds, large-cap convertible bonds in financial and power sectors, and undervalued debt-type convertible bonds [2][9]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Southern Guangli, as a multi-asset "fixed income+" product, adjusts its strategy through dynamic changes in convertible bond positions and bond duration management [3][10]. - The investment framework emphasizes continuous iteration and deepening of industry knowledge, supported by the research team and digital platforms [3][10]. Group 3: Selection Criteria - The investment approach prioritizes industrial cycles, with a focus on both economic conditions and valuation metrics for security selection [4][11]. - The Southern Fund utilizes a digital platform to assess market sentiment across 30 industries, enabling strategic adjustments based on emotional indicators [4][11]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with significant opportunities in equity and convertible bond markets, while the pure bond market is expected to be more volatile [6][13]. - The strategy will maintain a balance of offensive and defensive tactics, adapting to market fluctuations to stabilize returns [6][13]. - The technology growth sector remains a core focus, particularly the upstream and downstream synergies within the AI industry chain [7][13]. Group 5: Risk Management - Investors are advised to adjust return expectations for convertible bond funds in 2026, as high returns from 2025 were largely due to valuation recovery during a market transition [7][14]. - In a low-interest-rate environment, convertible bonds and "fixed income+" products offer significant advantages, balancing risk and return through a combination of bond protection and equity-like flexibility [14].