新股前瞻|国资股东“扎堆”，业绩高成长的粤十数智经营现金流持续为负

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Yueshi Smart Co., Ltd. (Yueshi Smart) is preparing to enter the capital market by submitting a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to leverage its data-driven cold chain agricultural product sales model for growth [1][2]. Business Overview - Yueshi Smart operates primarily in two segments: cold chain agricultural product sales and cold chain intelligent comprehensive solutions, with the former accounting for over 98% of revenue in 2023 and 2024 [4][5]. - The company has experienced rapid growth, with revenues of RMB 1.25 billion in 2023 and RMB 2.98 billion in 2024, and a projected revenue of RMB 3.99 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 116.71% [2][4]. Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit for Yueshi Smart was negative RMB 6.04 million in 2023, positive RMB 29.69 million in 2024, and RMB 50.95 million for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a significant turnaround [8][10]. - The gross margin for cold chain agricultural product sales has improved from 0.3% in 2023 to 2.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing to the overall gross margin increase from 1.8% in 2023 to 3% in 2025 [7][10]. Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Yueshi Smart ranks eighth in the Chinese cold chain agricultural product sales market with a market share of 0.6% as of 2024 [2][10]. - The cold chain agricultural product sales segment is the core growth driver, with sales revenue increasing significantly due to product category expansion and a growing customer base [4][5]. Challenges and Risks - Yueshi Smart faces challenges in maintaining operational cash flow, with negative cash flow from operating activities reported at RMB 55.63 million in 2023 and RMB 34.34 million in 2024 [13][14]. - The company is also under pressure from increasing inventory levels, with inventory values rising from RMB 258 million in 2023 to RMB 2.22 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, leading to extended inventory turnover days [11][12]. Future Outlook - The ability to cultivate the high-margin cold chain intelligent comprehensive solutions business into a new growth driver is crucial for improving overall profitability and valuation [15]. - The company's reliance on shareholder resources for initial growth raises questions about its long-term sustainability and efficiency compared to traditional traders in a highly competitive market [10].