国金宏观：AI对出口的影响有多大？

Group 1 - AI has become an essential part of global trade, with China as the largest exporter of AI products and the US as the leading investor in AI [3][24][33] - AI investment is projected to significantly boost the US GDP, contributing 0.8 percentage points to the growth by Q3 2025, with a total global AI spending expected to reach $1.8 trillion in 2025 and $2.5 trillion in 2026 [4][24][33] - The global trade of AI-related goods is expected to grow at a much faster rate than non-AI goods, with a projected 21.7% year-on-year increase by Q2 2025 [6][34] Group 2 - The AI trade is expected to account for 15% of global trade by 2025, contributing over 40% to the overall growth of global merchandise trade [6][34] - The AI industry value chain includes hardware, cloud computing, data, models, and applications, with a focus on hardware components such as raw materials and chip manufacturing equipment [9][38] - By 2024, the narrow AI goods trade is estimated to reach $3.3 trillion, representing 13.6% of global trade, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [10][38] Group 3 - In the first three quarters of 2025, the broad AI goods trade in major sample regions is projected to reach $2.7 trillion, marking a 16.9% increase year-on-year [10][39] - AI-related goods exports from mainland China are expected to total $840.7 billion in 2025, accounting for 22% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [19][48] - The main export destinations for AI-related goods include Hong Kong, the US, and Vietnam, with significant impacts from US tariffs on Chinese imports [21][50]