春节“红包行情” 数据大揭秘

Group 1 - The core concept of "Spring Festival Red Packet Market" refers to the seasonal effect where market sentiment improves, capital becomes active, and indices strengthen around the Spring Festival [2][4] - Historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has a 70% probability of rising in the five trading days before the Spring Festival, indicating a tendency for "red packets" to be issued during this period [6][7] - The performance of the market varies each year, with different patterns observed, such as continuous rises or rebounds after a dip, highlighting the unpredictability of the market [5][9] Group 2 - The post-Spring Festival market also shows a 70% probability of rising, with longer holding periods potentially leading to greater returns, as evidenced by a 7.10% increase in the ten days following the festival in 2019 [7][8] - Market preferences shift before and after the Spring Festival, with large-cap blue chips favored before the festival and small-cap growth stocks becoming more active afterward [8] - There are instances where the market does not perform well before the festival, as seen in 2018, 2020, and 2022, emphasizing that historical trends should be used as references rather than guarantees of future performance [9]