华源证券：维持百胜中国(09987)“增持”评级 股东回报源远流长

Core Viewpoint - Company is expected to achieve steady growth in net profit from 2026 to 2028, with projected figures of $10.71 billion, $11.56 billion, and $12.42 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 8%, and 8% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of $28.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit of $1.4 billion, up 24% year-on-year [1] - The operating profit margin and net profit margin for Q4 were 6.6% and 5.0%, showing increases of 0.8 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2025, the company achieved revenue of $118.0 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $9.3 billion, up 2% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Same-Store Sales Growth - The company experienced a 3% increase in same-store sales in Q4 2025, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive growth [2] - KFC's same-store sales grew by 3% in the same quarter, with transaction volume also increasing by 3%, while average order value remained stable compared to the previous year [2] - Pizza Hut's same-store sales rose by 1%, with a 13% increase in transaction volume, aligning with the company's mass market strategy [2] Group 3: Store Expansion Plans - By the end of 2025, the company had a total of 18,101 stores, with a net addition of 1,706 stores for the year, and 587 stores added in Q4 alone [3] - The company is accelerating its store opening pace, supported by a more flexible store model and franchise layout, including the "shoulder-to-shoulder" model for rapid expansion [3] - The company plans to open approximately 40 pairs of Gemini stores in 2025, with a goal to increase the pace of Gemini store openings in 2026 [3] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company plans to complete $1.5 billion in share buybacks and dividends in 2026, with average annual shareholder returns of approximately $900 million to over $1 billion expected in 2027 and 2028 [4] - From 2027 onwards, the company intends to return about 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders, after deducting dividends paid to minority shareholders [4] - Assuming an annual return of $900 million to shareholders in 2027 and 2028, this amount could represent 5% of the company's market value as of February 3, 2026 [4]