市场多空因素交织 原木期价回归震荡走势

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the log futures market is weak, with the main contract dropping significantly by 2.28% to 772.0 yuan/cubic meter as of the report date [1] Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - In the week from January 31 to February 6, New Zealand ports shipped a total of 12 vessels carrying 440,000 cubic meters of logs, an increase of 4 vessels and 140,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [2] - As of February 6, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 2.38 million cubic meters, a week-on-week decrease of 1.65%; radiata pine inventory was 2.02 million cubic meters, down 1.94%; North American material inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, down 9.09%; and spruce/fir inventory remained stable at 110,000 cubic meters [2] Group 2: Pricing Trends - On the spot market, the price of radiata pine logs in Shandong was quoted at 754 yuan/m, an increase of 14 yuan/m; in Jiangsu, the spot price was 784 yuan/m, also up by 14 yuan/m; the import CFR price was at 113 USD/m, a week-on-week increase of 3 USD/m [2] - Overall, the spot market prices are stable, with a recent reduction in log arrivals, leading to a tightening supply situation. However, demand remains weak as processing plants begin to close for the Spring Festival [4] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - New Century Futures notes that the recent reduction in log arrivals is leading to a tightening supply, and after digesting supply shocks, log prices are expected to stabilize [4] - Green Dahan Futures highlights a complex market with mixed factors affecting log futures. Prices for 3-meter wood in the Lianshan area continue to rise, providing strong support for demand. If the price transmission mechanism for wood is smooth, there is potential for further price increases in the spot market, leading to a positive outlook for radiata pine prices post-holiday [4]