尿素基本面利空预期即将来临 因而逢高空配为主

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic futures market for the chemical sector, particularly urea, is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the main contract rising by 1.18% to 1797.00 yuan/ton as of February 9 [1] Group 2 - In the spot market, as of February 9, Shandong Ruixing's small granular urea price has been raised to 1780 yuan/ton, with actual transactions subject to negotiation; Shandong Alliance's small granular urea is quoted between 1770-1800 yuan/ton, with actual transactions varying by region [2] - On the supply side, East China Futures analysis indicates that daily production has increased, leading to sustained pressure, while overall demand support is insufficient due to reduced compound fertilizer operations and weak expectations, alongside a lackluster export market and limited port demand [2] - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of urea in Chinese enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous week, representing a 2.79% decline; the port sample inventory was 165,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons, marking a 14.58% rise [2] - Looking ahead, Wukuang Futures believes that the current price gap between domestic and international markets has opened an import window, combined with expectations of improved operations at the end of January, indicating that bearish expectations for urea's fundamentals are approaching, suggesting a strategy of shorting on rallies [2]