集邦咨询：AI浪潮推升 存储器与晶圆代工产值均将在2026年创下新高

Core Insights - The memory and foundry industries are expected to reach record high revenues by 2026, driven by the AI wave, with memory industry revenue projected to expand to $551.6 billion and foundry revenue to $218.7 billion, with memory revenue surpassing foundry revenue by more than double [1] Group 1: Memory Industry Dynamics - The current memory cycle, driven by AI demand, shows stronger resilience and price premiums compared to the previous cycle from 2017 to 2019, which was primarily driven by cloud data center needs [3] - The demand for high-capacity and high-bandwidth DRAM is increasing due to the shift in AI focus from model training to large-scale inference applications, emphasizing real-time response and data access efficiency [3] - The purchasing behavior has shifted from end customers to cloud service providers (CSPs), leading to exponential growth in procurement volumes and a lower sensitivity to price changes, resulting in record price increases [3] Group 2: Foundry Industry Characteristics - Despite benefiting from strong orders for AI chips, the growth rate of foundry revenue is more stable compared to memory, due to industry structure and pricing mechanisms [4] - The foundry market is characterized by high technical barriers and capital expenditures, leading to a highly concentrated supply, which limits the ability to easily expand capacity [4] - The foundry industry’s pricing volatility is lower than that of the memory industry, making significant price fluctuations less likely [4] Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Market Position - The memory industry has a higher elasticity in capacity expansion compared to the foundry industry, contributing to the widening revenue gap [5] - The standardization of memory products allows for more efficient capital expenditure conversion into actual output, unlike the diverse product mix in foundry services [5] - Memory manufacturers hold strong pricing power amid ongoing AI demand and supply shortages, with average selling prices (ASP) expected to continue rising [5]