Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports a shift in consumer behavior, with chatbots becoming a new starting point for information search, content consumption, and task execution [1] - The firm predicts a compound annual growth rate of approximately 330% for China's token consumption from 2025 to 2030, indicating significant growth potential in AI infrastructure [1] - Major internet platforms are now willing to invest substantial marketing funds to accelerate adoption, which will mechanistically increase reasoning volume and drive rapid growth in token consumption [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised about Tencent Holdings' (00700) cautious advancement in AI products compared to peers, leading to potential valuation compression [2] - The current trading valuation of Tencent is 15 times the forecasted earnings for 2026, only about 25% above historical lows, while core earnings outlook remains robust [2] - Tencent's enduring asset is its distribution and engagement capabilities, which can grow over time and allow for scaling new capabilities, including AI, at a lower user acquisition cost [2]
小摩: 目前断定AI应用市场最终赢家为时过早 偏好阿里巴巴-W(09988)等