“高市交易”卷土重来

Group 1 - The ruling coalition led by Kishi Nobuo won over two-thirds of the seats in the Japanese House of Representatives, paving the way for further fiscal stimulus policies [1] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected victory of the ruling coalition may lead to a resurgence of "Kishi trading," with pressure on the yen and potential upward volatility in the Japanese stock market [1] - The victory of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may result in continued depreciation of the yen in the short term, with a higher likelihood of foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities if key levels are breached [1] Group 2 - Political uncertainty is decreasing, and combined with "dual easing" policies, this may provide temporary support for the valuation of Japanese risk assets [1] - Despite the potential for fiscal expansion and slow interest rate hikes under Kishi's administration, concerns about the yen's exchange rate are increasing, especially if it approaches critical levels such as 160 yen per dollar [1] - The Japanese authorities have already signaled a willingness to intervene in the currency market, which could increase if the yen crosses significant thresholds [1]