白宫高喊“强势美元”却没人信？投资者这次选择用脚投票

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America warn that tariff threats and potential aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are undermining the global reserve status of the dollar, leading investors to flock to gold and other safe-haven assets [1][7]. Group 1: Dollar's Performance - In 2025, the dollar experienced its largest annual decline in eight years, with a drop of approximately 9% [2][8]. - Despite a recent rebound, the dollar index is down about 1% year-to-date, continuing the trend from 2025 [2][8]. - The dollar has not recovered from a more than 5% drop following President Trump's announcement of tariffs in April 2025 [2][8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Policy Uncertainty - Recent policy uncertainties are expected to persist long enough to hinder the dollar's recovery, as investors had initially anticipated more support for the economic cycle [2][8]. - The dollar's status as a reserve currency is increasingly questioned, with suggestions that geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties may lead to a reallocation of assets away from the dollar [2][10]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The market is assessing the potential impact of Kevin Walsh, Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve chair, who is seen as a monetary hawk but may lead to expectations of aggressive rate cuts [3][9]. - Trump indicated that if Walsh showed any interest in raising rates, he would not be nominated, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts [10]. Group 4: Gold and Other Assets - Gold appreciated over 60% in 2025, marking one of the strongest rebounds in history, and remains up over 70% in the past year [4][10]. - Other metals, including silver, platinum, copper, and steel, have also seen price increases alongside gold as demand for hard assets rises [5][11]. Group 5: Currency Trends - Major currencies such as the euro, pound, and Swiss franc have rebounded against the dollar, alongside emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso [6][11]. - Bank of America suggests that it may be premature to label recent currency fluctuations as signs of dollar depreciation, as fundamental factors driving dollar weakness have yet to fully manifest [6][11].