智通财经网·2026-02-09 08:01Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its battery sales forecast for CATL (03750) for the next two years by 5% to 7%, estimating sales between 829 and 1,044 GWh, and has also increased its net profit forecast by 5% to 7%, maintaining the target price at 660 HKD, up from 640 HKD, with a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - UBS's 2026 battery teardown report includes CATL's Shenxing supercharging battery and Kirin battery, indicating that the company maintains a cost competitive advantage in both domestic and overseas production [1] - The estimated cost of similar batteries produced in Hungary is projected to be 10 to 15 USD/kWh higher than those produced in China, but the operating profit margin of the Hungarian factory is expected to be similar to that of domestic factories [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from multiple growth opportunities due to its global leadership in cost, scale, and technology, particularly in the acceleration of electrification in electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and new application fields [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that the cost curve of CATL's Hungarian factory will be lower than that of Germany, with the operating profit margin expected to remain consistent with domestic operations, driven by European market premiums, highly automated production, and only moderate increases in labor costs [1] - With a leading and continuously growing global market share, the company is expected to benefit from deeper penetration of electric vehicles, accelerated electrification of commercial vehicles, and expansion into energy storage systems, data centers, and robotics applications [1] - The forecasted compound annual growth rates for the company's revenue and profit from 2024 to 2029 are 20% and 25%, respectively [1]