美伊谈判缓解供应担忧，国际油价跌幅超1%

Core Viewpoint - The commitment of the U.S. and Iran to continue indirect negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear issue has alleviated market concerns about conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a decline in international oil prices by over 1% [1][4]. Oil Price Movement - As of February 9, 2023, at 7:47 GMT, Brent crude oil futures fell by $0.84, a decrease of 1.2%, settling at $67.21 per barrel; West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures dropped by $0.82, a decline of 1.3%, to $62.73 per barrel [1][4]. - The easing of regional tensions resulted in both major crude oil benchmarks dropping over 2% last week, marking the first decline in seven weeks [3][6]. Geopolitical Context - The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which made progress in Oman, have reduced fears of an immediate disruption in Middle Eastern oil supplies [1][4]. - Despite the positive signals from the negotiations, Iran's foreign minister warned that any U.S. military attack would lead to retaliation against U.S. military bases in the region, indicating that potential conflict risks remain [3][6]. Market Analyst Insights - Analysts note that the market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, with any negative news potentially driving up oil price risk premiums [7]. - The ongoing efforts by Western nations to curb Russian oil export revenues, which fund its military actions in Ukraine, are also under scrutiny, with the EU proposing a comprehensive ban on services related to Russian oil exports [7]. Trade Dynamics - Approximately one-fifth of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, highlighting the strategic importance of this region [2][5]. - Indian refiners, previously major buyers of Russian seaborne oil, have ceased purchasing Russian crude for April delivery and are expected to maintain this pause, which may facilitate trade agreements between India and the U.S. [7].