东方证券：PVC资产有望迎来重估 需求结构是重估驱动力

Core Viewpoint - PVC-related stocks have shown significant increases since the end of 2025, driven by a preemptive export surge in response to the non-refund policy for export value-added tax effective from April 2026 [1] Group 1: Demand Structure as a Revaluation Driver - PVC and electrolytic aluminum are both high-energy-consuming products, with electricity being the most critical production factor [1] - Since 2022, there has been a significant divergence in the value generated per kilowatt-hour between PVC and electrolytic aluminum, with the latter achieving over double the value of PVC by 2026 [1] - The demand structure for PVC has undergone substantial adjustments, and if emerging developing countries maintain growth, China's PVC demand may mirror the structural transformation seen in electrolytic aluminum post-2022 [1] Group 2: Energy Attributes as a Revaluation Anchor - The market attributes the prosperity of domestic electrolytic aluminum to the "45 million tons capacity red line" policy, while PVC lacks a similar explicit regulation [2] - The carbon emission intensity of the calcium carbide method for PVC is low, and its future potential for green improvement is limited, making it less attractive under carbon neutrality goals [2] - The profitability per kilowatt-hour for typical electrolytic aluminum companies is projected to reach 0.21 yuan in 2024, suggesting that if PVC recovers to a comparable level, its profitability could exceed 1,500 yuan per ton [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Key PVC industry stocks identified include Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Beiyuan Group, Ordos, Tianyuan Co., Jiahua Energy, Chlor-alkali Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical, all of which are competitive players in the PVC sector [3] - Despite their competitive positioning, these companies currently face poor profitability in their PVC operations, with Xinjiang Tianye forecasting a slight loss for the entire year of 2025 [3] - If PVC profitability reaches the anticipated levels, significant improvements in earnings for these companies are expected [3]