特朗普称任期结束前道指将达10万点，华尔街分析师今年标普500涨幅预测仅约11%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that former President Trump predicts the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 100,000 points by January 2029, attributing recent stock market gains to his tariff policies [1][2] - Trump claims that his administration's tariff policies have driven record stock market performance and national security, stating, "The record stock market and national security are driven by our great tariff policy" [1] - A study from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy indicates that approximately 96% of the tariff costs are borne by American consumers and businesses, contradicting Trump's optimistic view on the economic benefits of tariffs [1] Group 2 - Trump previously posted similar content, claiming that the Dow reaching 50,000 points ahead of schedule was a significant achievement, and he urged voters to remember this during the midterm elections [2] - Despite Trump's optimistic outlook, Wall Street analysts have a median forecast for the S&P 500 index's growth of only about 11% for the year, indicating a divergence from Trump's expectations [2]