兴证王涵：日本大选结果对金融市场的潜在影响

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the Japanese capital market, particularly the weakening of the yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs), reflect a structural change influenced by the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar global order, which is reshaping the pricing logic of global assets [1][6][19]. Group 1: Japanese Yen and JGBs - The yen and JGBs have lost their status as "safe-haven assets" due to significant market volatility since the beginning of the year, with both showing a marked decline [1][6][24]. - Recent government interventions have temporarily stabilized market sentiment, but the underlying structural changes in the yen and JGBs cannot be attributed solely to short-term economic fluctuations [1][6][25]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - Japan's geopolitical position has evolved from being a key ally of the U.S. in a unipolar order to facing increased geopolitical risks as the U.S. reduces its strategic reliance on Japan [2][24][36]. - The decline of U.S. hard power and its strategic adjustments in Asia have led to a reassessment of the geopolitical security foundation that previously supported Japanese assets, resulting in a diminished "safe-haven" perception [2][24][36]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The ongoing transition to a multipolar world will continue to impact global financial markets, with Japan's asset "de-securitization" being a specific manifestation of this trend [4][19][20]. - The long-term shift of global capital and growth towards emerging markets, alongside a diversification of the international monetary and financial system, will persistently reshape the underlying logic of global asset pricing [4][20][38].